An Economic Assessment of a Global Vaccination Campaign for the Eradication of African Swine Fever Virus

Abstract

African swine fever virus (ASFV) is a double-stranded DNA virus and the only member of the Asfarviridae family. ASFV is a high mortality virus making it an active antagonist to pork production across the globe. ASFV is a significant concern for national ministries of agriculture as the only way to contain the spread of ASFV is through depopulation of the infected swine herd and the herds surrounding the source. In response to the negative impact of ASFV on local economies, the World Organisation for Animal Health has listed ASFV as a candidate for eradication. Eradication of a virus is an expensive endeavor, so the long-term financial benefits must outweigh the costs of implementing biosecurity measures, vaccine production, laboratory equipment, and salaries for veterinary personnel, among other associated costs. Using a benefit-cost model established in a peer-reviewed article for the ongoing eradication of peste des petits ruminants virus, this thesis seeks to address the question of whether the cost of implementing a worldwide vaccination program against ASFV is worth the financial investment. A commercial ASFV vaccine does not exist, so three virus models and their respective vaccines were used as proxies to calculate the cost of a vaccination program. Benefits were measured in avoided losses of pork production. The results revealed that over the last four years, swine deaths due to ASFV have resulted in global losses between US $555 million and US $742 million. The cost of implementing vaccines across three continents ranges from US $112 million to US $1 billion. The benefits of avoided losses lie between US $133 billion and US $242 billion. The lowest benefit-cost ratio was 122:1 and the highest benefit-cost ratio was 2164:1. Given the magnitude of the economic benefit, it is recommended that the World Organisation for Animal Health, national governments, and pig farmers collaborate on putting into effect a vaccination campaign for the eradication of African swine fever virus.