Incarceration Outcomes for Indigenous Territorians: Evidence from the Australian Northern Territory Emergency Response (2007) and Stronger Futures in the Northern Territory Act (2012)

Abstract

The 2007 Northern Territory National Emergency Response and 2012 Stronger Futures in Northern Territory Act were Australian federal polices implemented in the Northern Territory to ‘mitigate’ and ‘stabilize’ the then ‘emergency’ situation in prescribed Indigenous communities. This paper aims to measure the causal effect of the policies punitive alcohol restrictions on Indigenous incarceration in the Northern Territory. I analyse data collected from the ABS ‘Prisoners in Australia’ releases (2000-2024) to measure yearly state and territory changes in imprisonment before and after the policy, from 2007-2022. I find that the Northern Territory Indigenous prison population increased over the policy years, relative to all other states and territories. Comparatively, the Northern Territory non-Indigenous prison population decreased over the same years, relative to all other states and territories. These findings point towards the complex intersection of these policies, incarceration trends, and Indigenous history that merits further investigation and nuanced discussion about future policies in this vein.