Does Weather Affect Environmental Voting? A Case Study of California

Abstract

Weather has been shown to affect human behavior in many different ways. This study examines the relationship between abnormal weather patterns and legislator voting behavior on environmental bills. Using a methodology inspired by Herrnstadt and Muehlegger (2014), I test if a positive relationship between weather deviations and environmental voting exists in California. To my knowledge, this is the first study testing this relationship at the state level. I study a sample of 6,479 votes cast on environmental bills in the California State Legislature between 2016 and 2019. Regressions conducted on this entire dataset, as well as subsets distinguished by environmental issue and season, indicate that atypical vote-day weather can influence the voting decisions of representatives, often leading them to take a more pro-environment stance. For example, if it rained one millimeter more than expected, my analysis shows that these representatives were 1.47 percent more likely to cast a pro-environment vote. This result is small but statistically significant. I find that effects are largest for weather variables directly connected to the environmental issue in the bill, and that these effects are stronger in the summer months. Understanding how California representatives vote on these bills is important given the large impact the state has on environmental policy throughout the United States.