Testing the Tilt: Using United Nations General Assembly Voting Data to Test the “Rising China” Thesis

Abstract

Does China’s rise cause states to align increasingly in its direction? While there are many theories and foreign policy arguments that answer this question affirmatively, the evidence has largely been anecdotal and unsystematic. This thesis systematically tests the “Rising China” proposition by examining whether China’s economic leverage has resulted in a “tilt” by nations in China’s direction and away from the U.S. alliance orbit. Utilizing United Nations General Assembly voting records, this thesis takes the critical case of South Korea – a U.S. military ally that is trade dependent on China – to determine whether and on what issues this linchpin Asian state aligns with the U.S. or with China. It finds that South Korea remains strategically aligned with the United States, despite evidence of China’s economic influence. These results contribute to international relations theories about the conditions under which smaller allies flip from the patron ally and have implications for grand strategy debates about the future of Pax Americana in the Trump era.