Moving for Reproductive Rights: Do Targeted Regulation of Abortion Provider Laws Drive Female Internal Migration?

Abstract

The recent rollback of federal abortion protections in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization has resulted in a fragmented legal landscape, where abortion access is now shaped almost entirely by state policy. Emerging research on post-Dobbs abortion bans has begun to document their effects on migration, revealing net outflows from ban states. This thesis extends that line of inquiry by examining an earlier set of supply-side abortion restrictions—Targeted Regulation of Abortion Providers (TRAP) laws—enacted before Dobbs and serving as a useful historical precedent. Using individual-level data from the American Community Survey from 2001 to 2018, I employ a staggered difference-in-differences event study design to estimate the causal effect of TRAP law implementation on women’s likelihood of relocating across state lines. Results indicate that TRAP laws significantly increase the probability of female out-migration, with effects persisting up to five years post-implementation. Additional analyses suggest that more severe TRAP laws may be associated with larger migration responses. I also reveal that women affected by these laws are more likely to move to Democratic-leaning states, suggesting that access to abortion plays a role in destination choice. Taken together, these findings indicate that supply-side abortion restrictions can generate shifts in population distribution, with potentially wide-ranging demographic and economic consequences.