Sex-Based and Seasonal Patterns Underlying Zoonotic Transmission Risk of Henipavirus Among Bats

Abstract

Disease susceptibility in bat colonies is an increasing concern, particularly following the recent global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, and repeated spillover events. Despite extensive research, the factors influencing viral circulation within bat populations are under-investigated. This study aimed to investigate how sex, seasonality, and age structure the serological patterns of Henipavirus exposure in a captive population of Eidolon helvum bats in Ghana over a nine-year period. Longitudinal serological data were analyzed using statistical approaches including mixture models, t-tests, ANOVA, generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs), and a basic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model to evaluate antibody dynamics and transmission trends. Results indicated that female bats maintained consistently higher Nipah virus antibody levels than males, particularly during the breeding season, suggesting a potential link between reproductive physiology and viral maintenance. Age-related patterns were less clear, likely due to sampling limitations. A simple SIR model captured basic serological trends but failed to fully replicate observed fluctuations, highlighting the need for more biologically complex models. These findings emphasize the importance of sex and seasonality in bat viral ecology, and contribute to improving our understanding of zoonotic transmission risk, which is critical for informing targeted surveillance and intervention strategies.