The Effect of No Child Left Behind (2002) on Hispanic Enlistment Rates Through a “Poverty Draft” Framework

Abstract

This thesis uses a difference-in-differences regression to examine the effect of the No Child Left Behind (NCLB) Act on Hispanic military enlistment rates in the United States. Using state-year data from 1997 to 2009, the analysis evaluates the validity of the “poverty draft” framework by estimating whether states with larger low-income populations experienced changes in Hispanic enlistment rates after the implementation of NCLB. The results show a negative but statistically insignificant change in Hispanic enlistment rates in high-poverty populated states, suggesting that NCLB did not have a causal effect on Hispanic enlistment. A second regression analyzes enlistment rates by race. The results indicate that White enlistment rates experienced a positive and statistically significant increase and were the only racial group to show this pattern. Overall, the findings provide limited support for the “poverty draft” framework among racial minority groups. The increase in White enlistment rates suggests that recruitment patterns may have been more responsive among low-income White populations, demonstrating a need to expand the “poverty draft” framework.