It’s Not the Economy, Stupid: Deducing the Priorities of Voters on Immigration Policy from the Implementation of Secure Communities

Abstract

This paper looks for causal effects of Secure Communities (SC), a federal immigration enforcement program rolled out county-by-county between 2008 and 2013, on county-level voting behavior in U.S. House of Representatives elections and on potential economic mechanisms including housing prices and federal government employment. Using various difference-in-differences models, it finds no evidence that the well-documented negative labor market impacts of SC produced electoral backlash against the Republican Party. Instead, there is weak evidence that Democratic Party vote share decreased. Analysis of housing prices and federal government employment reveals no evidence of alternative economic payoffs that could offset labor market losses. These null results suggest that voters’ priorities on immigration policy are not driven by economic self-interest, consistent with literature emphasizing cultural concerns and structural barriers in American politics.