Arid Fields Where Conflict Grows: How Drought Drives Extremist Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

As the effects of climate change grow more severe, scholars and policymakers have paid increased attention to the intersection of climate change and conflict. This thesis examines one subset of that intersection: how drought contributes to extremist violence in sub-Saharan Africa. Though qualitative evidence suggests that drought can play a role in driving extremism, no large-N studies have addressed it.

I propose two mechanisms by which drought contributes to extremist violence. First, I find that drought in a district causes its economic activity to be 8.1% lower than a comparable district without any drought, which then leads to a 29.0% higher rate of extremist violence. Since local economic activity data is not available for much of sub-Saharan Africa, I use nightlights as a proxy. The effect of drought on extremist violence through this mechanism is statistically significant at the district level but not national level. Second, I find that farmer-herder conflict leads to higher rates of extremist violence in a district. Districts with farmer-herder conflict were more likely than not to also experience extremism in the same year. Since the literature shows that drought contributes to increased rates of farmer-herder conflict, I establish a pathway by which drought leads to increased rates of farmer-herder conflict which then leads to more extremism. I also find, however, that the effects of farmer-herder conflict and extremist violence are cyclical, with both fueling increases in the other.

I project the results from the section on drought, economic activity, and extremism into the future and find that there is a split between districts in sub-Saharan that are drying and those that are growing more wet. Both types of districts are projected to go more towards climatic extremes as climate change’s effects intensify. The risk of extremist violence is projected to increase, absent mitigation or adaptation, with more severe increases in districts that are drying.

Finally, I offer several potential policy solutions derived from my research. These solutions include efforts to mitigate the effects of drought and to specifically target both mechanisms proposed in this thesis. I also suggest the districts at which to target these interventions.