WHEN DOUBT DRIVES ACTION: AMERICAN UNCERTAINTY AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF EUROPEAN SECURITY IN THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR

Abstract

The Russia-Ukraine war has become the deadliest war since World War II, and there seems to be no end in sight. The war impacts far more than just Russia and Ukraine, but also the global stage. The greatest alliance in NATO is now at risk of being terminated. Ukraine lost the support of its most valuable contributor. And today, priorities are shifting towards new and emerging conflicts in other parts of the world. All while the Russia-Ukraine war continues to disrupt the twenty-first century. This thesis investigates a fundamental paradox in alliance politics: that the most consequential period of European security adaptation during the Russia-Ukraine war was produced not by American commitment, but by the fear that it was disappearing. The three crucial phases discussed are the pre-phase, first phase, and second phase. The pre-phase gave a glimpse into the future, that American security guarantees could be conditional. The first phase occurred during Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, where President Joe Biden provided staggering amounts of money to Ukraine. This gesture reinforced European reliance on the United States. And finally, the second phase saw a complete shift in American politics, with President Donald Trump invoking his “America First” agenda, which discontinued financial support for Ukraine. As a result, European countries are forced to make up for the loss of American aid because European incentives have changed. Not all European countries conditioned their support on American leadership or waited for Washington to act before committing their own resources. Those on the front lines and those with historical experience of Russian aggression acted immediately, even before the war. However, it was the uncertainty before any actual policy change that reshaped European incentive structures, highlighting the power of the United States. So what does it mean for the future of European security when the most powerful force driving allied adaptation is not American strength, but American doubt? To answer that question, this thesis draws on real-time data from the Kiel Institute Ukraine Support Tracker, alongside original elite interviews with some of the most consequential leaders directly involved in this war, spanning five countries and including those on the front lines who have lived the consequences of every decision. This thesis finds that managed uncertainty has left Europe stronger than decades of reassurance had. A new way forward is possible. The question is whether America, Russia, Ukraine, and NATO have the will to take it.