Modeling Movement in Ancient Pompeii: An Urban Network Analysis of Pedestrian Flow and Economic Change

Abstract

This project uses network-based pedestrian modeling to investigate how movement and economic activity in ancient Pompeii were shaped by the city’s infrastructure, particularly in the aftermath of the 62–63 CE earthquake and the resumption of gladiatorial games in 64 CE. Drawing from urban planning tools, the Urban Network Analysis toolkit was applied to simulate pedestrian flows across Pompeii’s street network. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to calibrate key parameters, including detour ratio and distance-decay, to generate behaviorally realistic simulations in the absence of complete archaeological records. Citywide simulations were run on both the reconstructed pre-earthquake network and the excavated 79 CE network. Surprisingly, there was no significant difference in the distribution of pedestrian flows between the two, challenging prior hypotheses that post-earthquake changes to street connectivity drove Pompeii’s economic shift from industrial production to commerce. To assess the potential impact of game-day movement, a scenario-based simulation was conducted from the amphitheater to the city gates. This highlighted several unexcavated segments that likely experienced high foot traffic. If gladiatorial games played a role in economic reorientation, future excavations along these paths may reveal a transition from industrial to retail-based activity. Overall, this study demonstrates how adapting urban planning models to archaeological contexts can offer new frameworks for interpreting urban change and testing hypothetical reconstructions. It also emphasizes the need for further research into the influence of event-based foot traffic on economic investment patterns, as well as a re-examination of assumptions about the long-term urban impacts of the 62–63 CE earthquake.