LOCKED IN: THE DOMESTIC DRIVERS OF ENERGY DIVERSIFICATION ACROSS EU MEMBER STATES, 2000-2024

Abstract

Why have EU member states diversified their energy at varying rates since 2000, despite operating under shared EU governance and frameworks? This thesis argues that the divergence in energy diversification outcomes is largely due to domestic structural conditions, as examined by the three mechanisms of path dependency, economic condition, and state capacity across all EU member states from 2000 through 2024. Using a mixed-methods research design, four panel regressions test mechanisms against the diversity index of energy supply. The results indicate that path dependency, measured by fossil fuel share, is the only variable that shows a statistically significant relationship with diversification outcomes. This remains true at the 1% level even when controlling for GDP. Neither economic condition nor state capacity offers significant results, which this thesis attributes to the equalizing effect of EU governance and funding. Qualitative analysis of Hungary, Bulgaria, Poland, Italy, and Greece supports these findings by underscoring how these mechanisms operate at the state level. Taken together, the empirical and qualitative analyses suggest that to achieve meaningful energy diversification in the EU, it is essential to address the structural lock-in of energy systems due to past dependence on fossil fuels rather than just increasing energy funding or administrative capacity.