Cross City, Cross Effects: Equilibrium Spillovers of Dublin's Luas Cross City on Residential Land Values

Abstract

This thesis examines how a major transit expansion reshaped residential land values in Dublin. I focus on Luas Cross City, a 2017 light-rail extension that not only added new stations but also connected the city’s previously disconnected Luas lines via a new city-centre interchange. Using transaction-level housing data from Ireland’s Property Price Register and a spatial difference-in-differences design, I estimate whether the project was capitalized into nearby sale prices through two channels: direct proximity to new Cross City stops and improved network connectivity near pre-existing Luas stations. I find that properties within 800 meters of a nearest-stop Cross City station sold for about 12.0% more after the opening relative to comparable control properties with effects concentrated close to the stations and fading with distance. I also find evidence that improved interchange increased the value of access to the pre-existing Luas system: in the preferred 800 meter “horse-race” specification, prices near relevant pre-existing stops rose by about 4.7%, net of direct Cross City proximity effects. These results suggest that transit investments can generate economically meaningful spillover beyond newly served corridors and that project evaluation should account for both direct station access and broader network effects. Keywords: residential land values, property price capitalization, spatial difference-in- differences, light-rail network effects, transit-oriented development