Mixed Messaging: How Ideologically Inconsistent Partisan Hurricane Coverage Shapes Perceived Climate Attribution Norms

Abstract

Climate change attribution norm misperceptions (i.e., inaccurate beliefs about what other people think regarding the link between climate change and extreme weather) are an important but still understudied way that partisan media may be contributing to polarization around climate change. This study builds on previous research (Nichols et al., 2025) by looking at how different sequences of Fox News hurricane clips shape these misperceptions among both Democrat and Republican viewers. Participants (n = 927) were randomly assigned to watch one of three Fox-labeled sequences consisting of five clips: a fully conservative sequence, a “mixed-middle” sequence (where a liberal clip was inserted in the middle of four conservative clips), or a “mixed-end” sequence (where the liberal clip was inserted after four conservative clips). Misperceptions of Republican, Democrat, and overall American climate attribution norms were measured as the difference between respondents’ perceptions of each group’s likelihood of attributing hurricanes to climate change and that group’s actual self-reported attribution. Misperceptions of Republican norms were the key outcome of interest as Fox News serves as an identity-relevant cue for Republicans. Across all sequence conditions, both Democrats and Republicans consistently underestimated the climate attribution norms of all three groups, and, contrary to hypotheses, the mixed sequences did not reduce misperceptions of Republican norms for either party. However, sequence effects were observed in Republican respondents’ perceptions of Democrat and American norms, where the mixed sequences were associated with reduced underestimation. Overall, these findings suggest that a single ideologically inconsistent clip is not enough to correct partisan norm misperceptions, and highlight the need for more research on how partisan media shapes how people understand others’ climate attitudes.