From Sidelines to Sportsbooks: Do Bettors Underestimate WNBA Coaches by Race or Gender?

Abstract

In this research, I examine whether betting markets systematically underestimate WNBA teams led by female or Black head coaches, using forecast errors in point spreads and over/under lines as a measure of bettor bias. This study tests for implicit consumer bias against coaches from historically underrepresented groups in sports leadership and demonstrates how betting markets can serve as a valuable tool for identifying such bias. I estimate multiple OLS regression models using two distinct data structures and explore a range of model specifications, including various subsets distinguished by time period and game type. The results of these models consistently indicate that female and Black coaches are not underestimated in the WNBA betting market, and may, in fact, be overestimated relative to their male and non-Black counterparts. These findings suggest that the WNBA may represent a distinctive setting in which these coaches are perceived more favorably than in other sports contexts or financial markets, where bias typically works against them.