Reshaping the Middle East: Israel’s Military Action and Regional Order in the Aftermath of October 7th

Abstract

In the aftermath of October 7th and Hamas’ Al-Aqsa Flood operation in Israel, the Israel Defense Forces conducted multiple major military operations in the Middle East, notably in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. As a result, the Islamic Republic, its proxies, and its influence in the region have been weakened, and new governments have emerged in Syria and Lebanon. This presents opportunities for a more stable and peaceful region than pre-October 7th. Therefore, this thesis aims to answer the following questions: is the Middle East at a turning point due to Israel’s military action in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran? If so, what actions need to be taken and by whom to realize positive change going forward, and what are the potential minefields? To do so, this paper conducts a qualitative analysis of the changes that have occurred in three formative factors of regional order between October 7th, 2023, and March 28th, 2026: the domestic and regional features of the main players in the region, the types of interaction between these actors, and the external and international permeation of the region. The thesis finds that Israel’s military actions have and continue to reshape all factors of regional order. However, it is not yet clear whether the region is turning towards stability and peace or towards prolonged conflict. Challenges – such as Hamas’ and Hezbollah’s defiance and refusal to disarm, the reconstruction and governance of Gaza, the current war in Lebanon, and regional escalations in the war with Iran – remain and risk to lead the Middle East towards the latter outcome of protracted conflict. To achieve the former outcome of stability instead, regional and international actors need to avoid repeating mistakes of the past and build upon Israel’s military successes with political and diplomatic solutions that address underlying issues.