Remote Work and County Amenity Effects on U.S. Housing Demand

Abstract

This paper examines how the rise of remote work due to COVID changed the value of specific regional amenities, such as weather and baseline economic conditions, in determining housing outcomes across the United States.

Using a dataset of 385 counties in the contiguous United States from 2015 to 2024, it combines Zillow monthly housing data with yearly county amenity, population, and remote work data obtained from NOAA and IPUMS USA. To estimate amenity effects on county working population growth, home values by size, and rents, the paper uses two empirical strategies: a county and time fixed-effects regression interacting national remote share with amenities, and a series of regressions iterated over time, each estimating amenity effects on cumulative outcome growth. The results show that remote work did not meaningfully alter the amenity determinants of working population growth, but it did change the amenity determinants of home values and rents. In the short-term, remote work increased housing prices in counties with warmer winters, cooler summers, and higher baseline transportation times. It also increased rents in counties with warmer winters in the short-term. In the long-term, remote work increased rents in counties with higher rainfall and higher baseline home ownership costs, and decreased rents in counties with higher baseline wages. It also decreased housing prices for large homes in counties with higher baseline wages in the long-term.

Overall, the findings suggest that remote work first shifted housing demand toward comfort, and later toward affordability, creating a new long-term housing market equilibrium.