Locked and Loaded: Ukraine's Emerging Geoeconomic Security Architecture

Abstract

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine’s defense-technology sector has grown from a handful of firms to approximately 1,500 companies producing drones, electronic warfare systems, and other battlefield technologies. This rapid expansion has attracted significant international investment and partnership interest, raising urgent questions about who should be allowed to invest in these companies and whether their products and technologies should be sold abroad. This thesis examines two regulatory tools through which Ukraine is managing these risks: investment screening, which governs who can acquire stakes in strategically sensitive firms; and export controls, which govern what can leave the country. Drawing on expert interviews, legislative documents, analytical reports, and quantitative data, the thesis identifies the domestic and international pressures shaping each regime. The central finding is a striking asymmetry. Investment screening is developing under reinforcing pressures — the United States, the European Union, Ukrainian institutions, and even the industry support its introduction. Export controls, by contrast, are caught in a contested domestic struggle between firms pushing for the right to sell abroad and national security institutions determined to keep production at home. The thesis examines the distinct political dynamics behind each trajectory and shows how institutional momentum, wartime conditions, EU accession, and US engagement have together shaped Ukraine’s emerging geoeconomic architecture.