Beyond Ideology and Pragmatism: Erdoğan’s Strategic Calibration in Turkish Foreign Policy

Abstract

This thesis examines President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s strategic rhetoric through comparative content analysis of his speeches on Turkey’s military interventions in Syria and diplomatic positioning on the Israel-Palestine issue from 2016-2024. Analyzing more than 60 speeches, this study challenges conventional characterizations of Erdoğan as either strictly pragmatic or ideological. The quantitative analysis reveals nuanced patterns: ideological language dominates in Palestine speeches (52.24%) while pragmatic language prevails in Syria speeches (54.37%), though these proportions shifted significantly over time. Most notably, a dramatic reversal occurred by 2024, with Syria speeches showing an extraordinary ideological-to-pragmatic ratio of 4.28, far exceeding Palestine’s more balanced ratio of 1.0 in 2023. Event-based analysis further demonstrates Erdoğan’s strategic adaptability, with ideological language increasing after the 2023 Hamas attack (from 48.5% to 58.7%) and during post-conflict phases in Syria (reaching 56.3%). The conflict phase analysis reveals a clear evolution in Syria rhetoric from predominantly pragmatic during early intervention years (58.2% pragmatic language, 2015-2019) to increasingly ideological in post-conflict rhetoric (56.3% ideological language, 2024). Drawing on Richard Weaver’s hierarchy of arguments, Walter Fisher’s narrative paradigm, and Contextual Adaptation Theory, this thesis argues that Erdoğan employs sophisticated strategic calibration rather than rigid ideological or pragmatic orientations. His rhetorical flexibility—adjusting language based on domestic political imperatives, international positioning, and evolving security concerns—represents a distinctive form of middle power diplomacy. This research contributes to our understanding of political communication in increasingly autocratic contexts and offers insights into how regional powers navigate complex geopolitical environments while balancing domestic legitimacy with international strategic objectives.