Hydrological Modeling to Determine Climate Sensitivity of Saltwater Intrusion in Coastal Agriculture

Abstract

This study applies hydrological modeling to explore the impacts of climate changes on the saltwater intrusion (SWI) of a coastal agricultural system. Most studies addressing predictive changes in saltwater intrusion approach the topic through field methods and/or data aggregation. We, however, approach the issue through modeling, allowing for projections of SWI into variable climate futures. Examining the model outcomes, we find the strongest relationships between saltwater intrusion and sea level rise, followed by decreasingly strong correlations with SWI and precipitation, storminess, and temperature. We find worsening conditions to act as a positive feedback, with more severe climate conditions requiring lower system change for increasingly severe SWI outcomes. Coastal agriculture is found to be in certain peril of crop degradation during SWI events, though more research is needed to deter- mine quantitative crop yield changes with saltwater intrusion. Results of this study provide novel information on comparative parameter importance, and should be used to inform decision-making in the viability of future coastal farming with the hopes of recommending changes for continued food security.