Building Sector Trends and Embodied Emissions in São Paulo: Implications for Decarbonization with Inclusion, Sufficiency, and Dematerialization

Abstract

As the global building stock expands to accommodate a growing urban population, embodied greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to represent an increasingly significant share of total urban emissions. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of embodied building emissions in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. Drawing on over 90 years of tax-parcel data, a detailed case study of material intensities for both formal and informal residential typologies, and geographically specific life cycle emission factors, this thesis quantifies the annual embodied carbon associated with new residential and commercial construction. Findings estimate average annual new construction in São Paulo generates approximately 1.46 million tons of CO₂-e/year in embodied emissions, which is equivalent to ~9% of the city’s emission profile (including energy, transport, and waste) and ~30% of emissions from the building sector (including operational emissions from electricity use, heating/cooling, and cooking). The study then evaluates the emission implications of three decarbonization strategies: inclusion (upgrading informal settlements to meet minimum floor area standards), sufficiency (reducing excess floor area per capita), and dematerialization (substituting carbon-intensive materials with lower-emission alternatives). While the inclusion scenario results in a negligible increase in emissions, an ambitious sufficiency scenario could reduce embodied emissions by up to ~23%, and an aggressive dematerialization scenario (modeled on near-optimal cement decarbonization) could cut embodied emissions by ~60%. These findings highlight the importance of integrating material-focused mitigation strategies and inclusive urban design into climate action plans.